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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(17)


6 December 2008
The global credit crisis is testing the resilience and sustainability of emerging markets’
policies, this column warns. Even strong performers are not shielded against
pure financial contagion, although they may well recover quickly once confidence
is restored. In the future, development finance is likely to rely less on private debt.
The global credit crisis has taken some time to spread from the industrialised countries
to the emerging markets. But in October 2008, the contagion spread rapidly,
afflicting all emerging markets, without any distinction or regard to their so-called
‘fundamentals’. For believers in ‘decoupling’, the high growth rates, massive foreign
exchange (FX) reserves, balanced budgets and rising consumerism in the emerging
markets at first reassured investors. Alas, the final diagnosis was contagion. In the
end all emerging market asset classes were hit – stocks, bonds and currencies.
This column reflects on early policy lessons from the current financial crisis for
• the diagnosis of emerging market policy performance,
• the channels of crisis contagion, and
• the future of private and official development finance.
Assessing emerging markets’ performance
It is now clear that the diagnosis of emerging-market policy performance suffered
from hyperbole. Many observers ignored the fact that all that glitters in emerging
markets may not be gold,1 underplaying as they did the cyclicality and endogeneity
of important policy performance indicators.
Emerging-market growth rates: Much of the recent growth has been driven by
an extraordinary bonanza in raw material prices and low-cost financing. Many
analysts forgot that growth rates can only be sustained over the long-run when
supported by cyclically-adjusted productivity growth. Arguably, from this perspective,
many Asian countries have more sustainable growth rates than emerging
markets in other regions.
The fallout from the global credit
crisis: Contagion – emerging
markets under stress
Helmut Reisen
OECD Development Centre
27
1 Izquierdo, A and E. Talvi, ‘All that glitters may not be gold: assessing Latin America’s recent macroeconomic performance’,
Inter-American Development Bank, 2008
Foreign exchange reserve levels: Their durability depends very much on the
exchange rate regime. Authorities may wish to avoid a currency slump and may
need to recapitalise their banking system. But if both foreign and domestic
investors lose confidence, even very impressive levels of foreign exchange reserves
can melt away quickly, as witnessed recently in Russia. As long as reserves are
below the liabilities of the banking system (M2), individuals may rush to convert
their domestic currency deposits into foreign currency and cause a currency slump


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