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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(19)


Financial crises that are caused by the monsoon effect or by financial contagion
can in principle be predicted through the monitoring of macroeconomic variables
common to economically integrated countries. Pure contagion, by contrast, hits
countries regardless of the level of economic integration. Pure contagion is hard
to predict or to quantify. A wave of pure contagion, however, can be stopped more
easily by decisive policies.4 As long as the fundamentals are not permanently damaged
by pure contagion, it is sufficient to switch expectations back from red to
green.
Financing development
As a mid-term consequence of the global credit crisis, private debt will be financed
only reluctantly and capital costs are bound to rise to incorporate higher risk.
Instead, solvent governments and public institutions will become the lenders of
last resort. The consequences for development finance and the global financial
architecture will be important. Figure 1 shows clearly how development loans by
the World Bank, the IMF, and the regional development banks had been crowded
out by private-sector lending throughout the boom decade. The supply of public
development finance will rise and regain some of the attractiveness to poor countries
that it lost during the boom period.
The fallout from the global credit crisis: Contagion – emerging markets under stress 29
4 Allen, F., Gale, D., ‘Financial contagion’, Journal of Political Economy, 2000, 108 (1), 1–33.
Figure 1 Percentage share in lending to developing countries
Source: World Bank, Global Development Finance, 2008
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
World Bank
IMF
Others official
Private creditors
However, the firepower of the international financial institutions is quite limited
and unlikely to stop ‘pure’ contagion and the global crisis. Causing a precautionary
rush by vulnerable countries to ask the international financial institutions
for help, their limited firepower paves the way for one-way bets on emerging-market
currencies. It is therefore important that these institutions finance a capital
increase.
China and India could provide a small part of their foreign exchange reserves
to the regional development banks – provided they are granted more voting
rights. Foreign exchange reserves, invested through the regional development
banks, could be leveraged as soft loans. Such action might alleviate African leaders’
concern that the global credit crisis will reduce finance available to poor countries
rather than the systemically important emerging markets.
30 The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II
23 October 2008
The standard pattern: capital flows into the new ‘hot’ nation, but then stop or


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