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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(22)


this implies four unconditional crisis probabilities, that of: default (or restructuring)
on external sovereign debt, a currency crash, and a banking crisis.4 We also
constructed the probability of each type of crisis within a window of three years
before and after the bonanza year or years, this we refer to as the conditional probability
of a crisis. If capital flow bonanzas make countries more crises prone, the
conditional probability should be greater than the unconditional probability of a
crisis.
We summarise the main results and then provide illustrative examples. For the
full sample, the probability of any of the three varieties of crises conditional on a
capital flow bonanza is significantly higher than the unconditional probability.
Put differently, the incidence of a financial crisis is higher around a capital inflow
bonanza. However, separating the high income countries from the rest qualifies
From capital flow bonanza to financial crash 33
4 In the paper, we also consider inflation crises; for crisis definitions see Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S.
Rogoff, ‘This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises’ NBER Working Paper
13882, March 2008.
the general result. As for the high income group, there are no systematic differences
between the conditional and unconditional probabilities in the aggregate,
although there are numerous country cases where the crisis probabilities increase
markedly around a capital flow bonanza episode.
Also, to provide an indication of how commonplace is it across countries to see
bonanzas associated with a more crisis-prone environment, we also calculate what
share of countries show a higher likelihood of crisis (of each type) around bonanza
episodes. For sovereign defaults, less than half the countries (42%) record an
increase in default probabilities around capital flow bonanzas. (Here, it is important
to recall that about one-third of the countries in the sample are high income.)
In two-thirds of the countries the likelihood of a currency crash is significantly
higher around capital flow bonanzas in about 61% of the countries the probability
of a banking crises is higher around capital flow bonanzas.
Beyond these general results, Figures 2 to 4 for debt, currency, and banking
crises, respectively, present a comparison of conditional and unconditional probabilities
for individual countries, where the differences in crisis probabilities were
greatest. (Hence, the country list varies from one figure to the next).
For external sovereign default (Figure2), it is hardly surprising that there are no
high income country examples, as advanced economy governments do not
default on their sovereign debts during the sample in question. The same cannot
be said of Figures 3 and 4. While the advanced economies register much lower


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