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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(23)


(conditional and unconditional) crisis probabilities than their lower income counterparts,
the likelihood of crisis is higher around bonanza episodes in several
instances. Notably, Finland and Norway record a higher probability of a banking
crisis around the capital flow bonanza of the late 1980s. Recalibrating this exercise
34 The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II
Figure 2 Are bonanza episodes more crisis prone? Sovereign external default: 66 countries,
1960–2007
Sources: Authors’ calculations, Reinhart and Rogoff (2008a), and sources cited therein.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Percent
Zambia
Nigeria
Kenya
Côted’Ivoir
Tunisia
Sri Lanka
Philippines
Guatemala
Ecuador
Bolivia
Angola
Algeria
Turkey
Mexico
Costa Rica
Chile
Argentina
Lowest income
Unconditional
Conditional on bonanza
Highest income
Probabilities of External Default: 1960–2007
in light of the banking crises in Iceland, Ireland, UK, Spain and US on the wake of
their capital flow bonanza of recent years would, no doubt, add new high income
entries to Figure 4, which graphs conditional and unconditional probabilities for
banking crises.
From capital flow bonanza to financial crash 35
Figure 3 Are bonanza episodes more crisis prone? Currency crashes: 66 countries, 1960–2007
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Nigeria
Kenya
Peru
Indonesia
Guatemala
El Salvador
Egypt
Ecuador
China
Angola
Romania
Mexico
Mauritius
Malaysia
Costa Rica
Chile
Brazil
Sweden
Portugal
New Zealand
Finland
Lowest income
Unconditional
Conditional on bonanza
Highest income
Probabilities of a Currency Crash: 1960–2007
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Percent
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Nigeria
Côte
Thailand
Peru
Paraguay
El Salvador
Colombia
Bolivia
Angola
Algeria
Venezuela
Romania
Mexico
Hungary
Chile
Argentina
Singapore
Norway
Finland
Lowest income
Unconditional
Conditional on bonanza
Highest income
Probabilities of a Banking Crisis: 1960–2007
Sources: Authors’ calculations, Reinhart and Rogoff (2008a), and sources cited therein.
Figure 4 Are bonanza episodes more crisis prone? Banking crises: 66 countries, 1960–2007
Sources: Authors’ calculations, Reinhart and Rogoff (2008a), and sources cited therein.
Reflections on the current conjuncture
Most emerging market economies have thus far been relatively immune to the


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