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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(30)


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Stock market wealth effects in emerging market countries 43

11 December 2008
In a future phase of the crisis, the issue of sovereign debt relief is likely to arise.
Such debt relief has historically been marked by political failure and short-term
thinking, and not delivered promising results. Drawing on recent research, this
column argues for tying debt relief to good governance goals is one way to
improve the outcome.
The global financial market crisis has fed fears that individual countries face such
serious problems that they might go broke, with this causing a cascade of national
crises. In particular, developing and emerging economies, which so far have
been regarded as being decoupled from the crisis in the industrialised world, are
endangered. Countries that may be regarded as problematic in this context are
Hungary, Pakistan and Iceland.
The IMF has loaned $15.7 billion to Hungary to help the country combat negative
fallout from the global financial crisis. Most recently, Pakistan got into deep
trouble when the country’s foreign exchange reserves shrunk dramatically and the
rupee plunged in October as the balance of payments deficit in the three months
from July 1 widened to $3.95 billion from $2.27 billion a year earlier. The decision
of the IMF to approve a US$7.6 billion credit to Pakistan to stave off a balance of
payments crisis reduces for the time being the prospect of Islamabad defaulting on
its foreign debts. Iceland received a bailout of almost $5 billion from the IMF and
the neighbouring Nordic countries.
The IMF also promised to help Latvia deal with its economic crisis after it assisted
Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia and Pakistan.
Table 1 shows the cost of some of the bailout programmes since the mid 1990s.
Not a few analysts believe that the worst is yet to come with respect to some transition
and developing economies.
If the bailout programmes do not help quickly, one might think of an old
instrument, namely debt relief, to overcome the problem. The question is if bailing



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