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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(67)


multilateral trade liberalisation have made borders less of a barrier to economic
activity, the scope of redistribution policies has become smaller.
As an increasingly globalised economic system increases the risk households
face and makes it harder for governments to enforce redistribution policies, something
has to pick up the slack. Our CEPR Discussion Paper 7048 finds that,
controlling for country and time effects, the negative association between open-
Finance, redistribution,
globalization
Giuseppe ‘ and Anna Lo Prete
University of Turin and CEPR; University of Turin
93
94 The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II
Figure 1 Public social expenditure and trade openness
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5
Log (Imports+Exports)/GDP, average in previous 5 year period
Log Public Social Expenditure/GDP,
5 year averages
Figure 2 Public social expenditure and trade openness, deviation from means
–0.25
–0.2
–0.15
–0.1
–0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
–0.2 –0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Log (Imports+Exports)/GDP, 5 year average, deviations from country means
Log Public Social Expenditure/GDP, 5 year
average, deviations from country means
ness and redistribution illustrated in Figure 2 is more pronounced when and where
financial markets are better developed. As globalisation progressed, financial development
substituted for government policies. In theory, this makes a lot of sense.
Financial markets must indeed be more important if international competition
makes it difficult to implement social protection schemes while introducing new
sources of income risk. In a more risky world, absent heavily redistributive national
welfare states, credit and insurance volumes have to increase.
Globalisation increases aggregate incomes but erodes redistribution, and it
could decrease welfare if it were not accompanied by better insurance against new
and larger risks. In our empirical work, following Jappelli and Pagano (1994), we
proxy the accessibility and efficiency of household financial markets by loan-tovalue
ratios – the percentage of a house purchase price that may be financed by
mortgages. Available indicators are significantly and sensibly related to openness
and social policy developments. Over time, loan-to-value ratios increased from
about 75% on average in the 1980s to about 90% in the 2000s. They differed
sharply across countries in the 1980s, when loan-to-value ratios already exceeded
80% in the UK and the US but were only slightly above 50% in Italy and Greece.
By the late 1990s, the loan-to-value ratios in all our OECD countries exceeded


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