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英国论文网:British and Dutch GDP:The spread of the cri(69)


Sinn, Hans-Werner (2003), The New Systems Competition, Oxford: Blackwell
Publishing.
96 The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II
12 June 2008
To pay for its current account deficit and capital exports, the US needs $2 trillion
of additional foreign investment in 2008. Recent research shows that the quality
and depth of US capital markets are key to attracting such investment, but the subprime
crisis has raised doubts. A judicious regulatory reaction to the subprime crisis
will thus be critical to the value of the dollar. If the US imposes a massive
increase in poorly thought-out regulation, the dollar could quickly return to its
downward spiral.
The US government is so concerned about the US dollar that on June 3 it broke
from standard operating procedure and had the chairman of the Federal Reserve
Board speak about the dollar (a role previously reserved for the US Treasury
Secretary and occasionally the President). The dollar immediately strengthened
and some analysts predicted that the dollar’s relentless depreciation since its peak
in February of 2002 was finally over. Some even predicted a dollar appreciation
over the next year (at least versus the Euro and other flexible currencies). On June
6, however, the dollar took another dive and fears resurfaced that the dollar’s
depreciation had further to go. Secretary Paulson responded on June 9 by stating
in a CNBC interview that he ‘would never take intervention off the table’ to support
the dollar.
What will it take?
In order for the dollar to stabilize, the US will need to attract enough capital at
existing prices to not only finance its current account deficit, but also to balance
capital outflows by US citizens (which increased by over 100% from 2005 to $1.21
trillion in 2007). Figure 1 shows the countries with the largest holdings of US portfolio
liabilities (equities and debt) as of June 30, 2007.
What Next for the Dollar?
The Role of Foreigners
Kristin Forbes
Sloan School of Management, MIT
97
98 The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II
Will foreigners continue to add to their holdings of US assets? This is the greatest
vulnerability to not only the dollar, but also the existing system of large global
imbalances. Rough estimates suggest that despite the reduction in the US current
account deficit, the US will require an additional $1.8 to $2.7 trillion of foreign
investment in just 2008.1 This is in addition to the (roughly) $16 trillion that
foreigners already hold.2 Will foreigners invest these massive sums of money at
current exchange rates? What will be the effect of increased regulation in US markets
and perceived hostility in some sectors to foreign investment?
How have foreigner done on their US investments?


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