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国际收支政策结构的应用机制(2)

Alternatively, the second source of the problem may be a high income elasticity of demand forimports (EYDMUK). 另外,第二个问题的根源可能是来自于一个高收入弹性的需求(HEDMUK)。This could be caused by a dependence on imports of raw materials and energysources such as oil, or because domestic consumers prefer foreign goods such as cars and consumerelectrical’s to similar goods produced domestically.For these reasons the BOP may act as an effective constraint on growth, since in the long-run acountry cannot grow faster than the rate of growth consistent with equilibrium in the current accountof its BOP.1In other words, if a country gets into BOP difficulties before it has reached domestic fullcapacity, then demand has to be contracted and investment curtailed. This may further exacerbate thecountry’s long-run BOP position if it results in slower productivity growth and export goods becomeeven less attractive to foreigners. Thus, a viscous circle can occur.因此,粘性循环可能发生。
Thus, the maximum growth rate the UK economy (  YUK) can sustain, whilst maintaining internal andexternal balance = 2.6%. Hence there is a constraint of maintaining BOP equilibrium, therefore theUK economy can only grow at half the world rate!
One important and unfavourable side-effect of BOP-constrained growth may be to encourage aprocess of de-industrialisation and a shrinkage in the manufacturing base. This can occur if thegrowth in manufacturing output which is constrained by the BOP is less than the rate of productivitygrowth.
This will imply that labour is being shed in some sectors of the economy at a faster rate thanthe economy can absorb it elsewhere.
这将意味着在某些经济部门的劳动力是以更快的速度前进着,更是远远超过了其他经济发达地区辐射到的地方。
The trend towards increased non-oil visible trade deficits hasoften been interpreted as evidence of a general lack of competitive edge in UK industry relative toforeign industry. Related evidence is provided by the progressive decline of the UK’s share of thetotal exports of manufactured goods of the major industrial countries, and by the increased importpenetration of the UK market by foreign products. These trends have prompted fears of the imminentde-industrialisation of the UK, with the manufacturing base so eroded by foreign competitors that fullemployment and balance of payments equilibrium cannot, in the long run, be achieved simultaneously.These fears have been heightened, rather than quelled, by the development of North Sea oil and itsimplications for the adjustment of the economy. At the very least, the UK may begin to face a severebalance of payments constraint as North Sea oil is gradually depleted. The statistics of the decline inthe UK share of world exports of manufactures are dramatic and indicate that the share fell steadilyfrom 20.4% in 1954 to a low of 8.8% in 1974. Since 1974, however, the UK’s share of world trade inmanufactures appears to have stabilised at around 9%.On itself, the decline in export share need not give rise to concern, since it may simply reflecta decline in the UK share of world manufacturing production, the natural result of Britain’s earlyindustrial start. However, once it is recognised that during the 1960s and early 1970s, the UK wasalone among the major industrial countries in experiencing a drop in export share, there are groundsfor disquiet. Furthermore, the decline in the UK’s share in world manufacturing production may itselfreflect the same factors which hinder UK trade performance.此外,在世界制造业内,英国的市场份额生产下降,可能本身反映了同样的因素阻碍在英国的贸易。


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