金融风险分析作业需求-Risk Analysis|Risk management involves identification, analysis, response planning and monitoringRisk Management Planning|Risk Analysis|Risk Management Planning|•Risk identification|•Risk analysis|•Risk response planning|•Risk monitoring|Risk Identification|•Potential impact onIncorporatingUncertainty and Risk(2)-Risk Analysis
Risk Management Planning
Risk Analysis
Risk Management Planning
•Risk identification
•Risk analysis
•Risk response planning
•Risk monitoring
Risk Identification
•Potential impact on
–Project implementation (cost and schedule)
–Achievement of project objectives (performance indicators)
–Different stakeholders
•Proactive (anticipation) or…
•Reactive (inspection and review)
•Internal (potentially controllable) or….
•External (uncontrollable)
Risk Analysis
•Evaluation of scale and need for response (probability x impact)
•Quantitative (e.g. Monte Carlo simulation) and/or …..
•Qualitative (e.g. high, medium, low, descriptive analysis)
Risk Response Planning
•Avoidance
–Don’t take risks but….
–……excessive risk aversion may lead to missed opportunity
•Mitigation
–Take action to counteract risk but……
–….may have resource implications
•Acceptance
–Accept that adverse circumstances may occur but…
–…may need a contingency plan
•Transfer or sharing (insurance or contract)
Risk Monitoring
•Identify critical parameters
•Ensure that they are monitored so that….
•Effective action can be taken before it is too late
•Logical framework can be useful in helping define…
–Critical risks and assumptions
–Objectively verifiable indicators for monitoring
Logical Framework
Narrative Summary
Verifiable Indicators
Means of Verification
Assumptions/Risks
Goals
Purpose
Outputs
Activities
Inputs
Risk Analysis
•Need to know which parameters are important and the range of probable values
•Step 1 –determine the parameters to which the project is most sensitive |
